Somewhat to my surprise TLT gapped down through major support at 123.5 to 124 yesterday, and almost made it to the sloping H&S target in the 121 area. Realistically I am expecting more downside on TLT after this break, though we might first see broken support retested and possibly yesterday morning's gap filled first. There is an OK looking double-top indicating to the 116.5 to 117 area, but the quality isn't great and I'd prefer to consider the trendline setup as I think it is more likely to deliver the correct target.
First trendline support is decent and is in the 118 to 118.5 area. This is my minimum target unless we see a strong and fast recovery over broken support, with it held afterwards. On a break below 118 to 118.5 I have possible rising channel support in the 110 - 112 area. On a break below that support trendline TLT should be in a primary downtrend, with the obvious target in the 92 area. However the next major support level is in the 107 to 108.5 area and that is particularly important as that support level is a possible H&S neckline for an H&S that would target the 84 area, subject to exactly how that formed. Any further downside on TLT will tend to support equities while it lasts, though the correlation isn't tight:
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