- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
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Thursday, 28 August 2014

Retracement Targets

SPX traded sideways yesterday in what looked quite a lot like a bull flag, but has broken down overnight. It seems very likely that an overdue retracement has started, though we might still retest the current high to form a small double top. The main fib retracement targets are the 23.6% fib retrace at 1990, the 38.2% fib retrace at 1980, and the 50% retrace at 1973. The 50 hour MA is at 1992 and might hold for the 23.6% option. Rising wedge support has already broken, so that is no longer support. SPX 60min chart:
I'm leaning towards either of the 1980 or 1973 targets ideally, as this would (on my primary scenario) be setting up a topping pattern for a last new high. I have main support at 1956 at rising wedge support from the January low and the 50 DMA, but if SPX gets that far then a stronger high than I was expecting would already most likely be in. SPX daily chart:
I'm watching the Dow, NYA and RUT charts for hits of the support trendlines on those charts from the last low. Dow is a decent example of the distance yet to be covered from the close yesterday. The best fit on SPX would most likely be the 1980 target. Dow 60min chart:
Oil has been rallying a bit and I think we may see a retest of broken triangle support in the 96.5 entry. I don't think that a significant low is in so if we see that retest, that should be a short entry. WTIC daily chart:
I'll be looking for the retracement pattern today and will post it on twitter when I have identified it. I'm looking at this as a retracement to buy before another (probably last) push up into a significant high.

Wednesday, 27 August 2014

Another Day, Another New High

Another day with no significant pullback and a new all time high yesterday. There is still definitely a small retracement needed soon but that will happen when it happens. In the meantime SPX is getting close to testing my main resistance zone, which is now in the 2011-21 area. On the daily chart the resistance levels in the zone are the daily upper band, currently at 2011, and rising wedge resistance from the January low, currently in the 2015 area. The daily upper band will most likely cross 2015 within a couple of days. SPX daily chart:
On the weekly chart the resistance levels in the zone are the weekly upper band, currently at 2021, and rising wedge resistance from the 1343 low, also currently in the 2021 area. As well as being resistance levels these are all also targets, so if we are to see a strong reversal from that resistance zone my ideal high would currently be in the 2021 area. SPX weekly chart:
If we do see some retracement today then I have SPX rising wedge support in the 1993 area,  and possible rising wedge turns channel support in the 1985 area. We could see a deeper retracement, but if so that would suggest strongly that 2005 was the first high of a small double top. SPX 60min chart:
As a marker for when a high could be made, the RUT chart may be useful. The larger IHS never formed well but the original IHS has a target in the 1190 area and that is a decent fit with my strong resistance zone on SPX. I'll be keeping an eye on this chart. RUT 60min chart:
My primary scenario here is that SPX hits the 2011-21 resistance zone and makes the second high of a double top targeting the 1800 area on a break below the 1904 low. If we see a clear break above that zone my next resistance area is possible rising channel resistance from the 1343 low in the 2060-2100 area, but I'll see whether SPX breaks up before I have a really close look at that scenario.