- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Wednesday, 28 September 2016

Symmetry

SPX made a marginal lower low yesterday as expected and then rallied back into main resistance at the daily middle band, which closed yesterday at 2158/9, with the 5dma and 50 hour MA slightly above in the 2161/2 area. SPX closed a handle above the middle band but in practical terms I count a close less than two handles away from the band as a close on it.

One thing you often see in this kind of situation is a kind of symmetry where unusual setups can repeat several times in a short period and we might have a situation like that here. The last two times that the middle band was tested SPX gapped through it and at the open today SPX has gapped through it again. Both of the last two gaps were breakaway gaps that did not fill that day or the day after. We may see that again today and, if so, that would be a strong start to the ATH retest that we are expecting. SPX daily chart:
The key level on ES today is the weekly pivot at 2152.25, and ES has gapped over that this morning. If that can be converted into support this morning then the upside is wide open. If that can't be converted to support then we could still see another test of yesterday's low. ES Dec 60min chart:
SPX has filled the gap so the breakaway gap up option is off the table. The main options for today and tomorrow are either an AM low today, conversion of overhead resistance to support, and then a direct move up, or a hard fail here that delivers a retest of yesterday's lows and possibly a marginal lower low. If we see that option then I have some trendline support in the 1331 ES area (approx 1338 SPX), and ES must not break below 2121 ES as that would invalidate the triangle and possibly kill off the ATH retest option in this high window.

The gold trade is looked at in detail in the video and at this test of 1325 this morning I now have a 60min buy signal brewing on GC. We are looking for a reversal back up in this area to the 1360 area, and there is an inflection area there to either fail down to the 1280 area or continue on to wedge resistance in the 1450 area, I'll be looking at the inflection setup in detail at that test.

I'm posting the premarket video that I do every morning for Daily Video Subscribers at theartofchart.net, as a promo this week, as we are raising the charges at the end of this month and anyone subscribing before then can do so at the current lower price. Blogger doesn't seem to be embedding videos for me this week so the direct link to that is here. If you're interested in subscribing then the subscriptions page is here. The daily video service is comprised of my morning video with the futures charts posted with the video and Stan's post market video in the evening. For any one of the surprising number of traders looking for the certainty of genuine clairvoyance we are sadly unable to provide that at the moment, but we do a pretty impressive job nonetheless just using math.

Next Sunday is the first Sunday of October and we are doing our usual monthly public Chart Chat which is free to all, and if you are interested in price direction on the 35 or so instruments we cover there, or just enjoy top quality TA, then you can register for that here.

Tuesday, 27 September 2016

AM Low Then Go

That was a strong retracement yesterday and the H&S targets that I was talking about on ES and NQ yesterday morning slightly sceptically have been made. What happens today is very important as the scenario that Stan and I are running here is that ES has broken up from a triangle into last week's high, and the sequence after this kind of triangle break is a backtest of the triangle, which is happening now, and then the main triangle thrust up begins. Ideally that means we see a low on ES this morning, very possibly reverse yesterday's move entirely over the rest of the day, and then thrust up to a retest of the all time high over the rest of the week. After that triangle thrust ends we should see a full retracement back to the level of this morning's low and then we'd expect that to be the start of the larger retracement down that I've been talking about.

If you're wondering how that looks then this is almost exactly the setup I was projecting on TNX a month ago and I show that example on the video below, so you can have a look at that to see a very nice example there playing out.

Assuming that the triangle scenario delivers, I'd like to see rising support in the 2131 hold, and invalidation of the triangle scenario comes on a break below 2121 (approx 2128 SPX). ES Dec 60min:
Pre Market Video for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net - I'm posting these publicly every day for the remainder of September as a promo. I've been having trouble embedding these videos on blogger and it seems to have given up trying altogether now so the direct link to that is here. Any of you in the GC trade should watch it and any of you trading bonds should really watch the last part of the video where I'm looking at ZB and TNX.