- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Friday, 24 June 2016

UK Independence Day

Much to everyone's surprise, including mine, the Brexit campaign won the UK referendum by a healthy margin and it seems the UK is starting down the road to leaving the European Union. There were big reactions overnight on the markets, and much gloom voiced and written about the danger and the instability of the Brexit, but personally I think it's a good thing, and if you believe that it's always better to stick with the devil you know, then I'd suggest perusing the writings of the US founding fathers for a series of opposing opinions. Change sometimes works out ok, and it's worth remembering that the only situation for humans that is ever really stable, is death, which is a high price to pay for certainty. Any good outcome always involves taking a risk. :-)

Moving onto the markets SPX broke back over the daily middle band with confidence yesterday and on the day after that happens, if that is a false break, then there will be a rejection candle that will retrace most or all of the breakout candle. Obviously we'll likely see one of those today. There is now a double top in place that would have alternate targets in either the 1987 or 1980 areas on a sustained break below 2050, which I would note has not been broken yet in RTH. SPX daily chart:
On the futures charts I'm posting all three of this morning's bonus charts of ES, NQ and TF for subscribers at theartofchart.net, because all three made globex lows at very significant levels that could limit further downside. Coupled with Brexit in my view being a storm in a teacup from a fundamental perspective, that is a serious concern for seeing further downside here, and raises a possibility that the main reaction low has already been made in globex. I'm leaning towards more downside, but watching this carefully.

ES Sep 60min chart:
NQ Sep 60min chart:
TF Sep 60min chart:
Even if the reaction low has already been made in globex I'd be expecting to see at least an attempt at a retest of that today. Today is liable to be whippy and if you struggle in very volatile markets it would probably best to leave this tape until Monday. Everyone have a great weekend :-)

Thursday, 23 June 2016

Gapping up on Brexit Polls

The markets have been moving significantly on every new Brexit poll and moved up hard overnight on polls showing that the Remain camp now have a clear lead. My working assumption all along, as I've mentioned regularly, is that Britain will vote to stay out of fear of change. The status quo generally has the edge on these kinds of referendums for that reason.

This gap up may mean that closing resistance at the daily middle bands on SPX and RUT may break today, if bulls can sustain the move into the close. We'll see whether they can but regardless of that, when there is a likely Remain victory overnight tonight there may well be another big gap up that could well have more staying power.

The pattern setups are clearer on the futures charts because these include the globex move, and so I'm using the ES, NQ and TF bonus charts that I posted for members at theartofchart.net this morning below to show the possible patterns developing on ES and TF, and the NQ IHS that has now broken the IHS neckline on NQ.


ES Sep 60min chart:
NQ Sep 60min chart:
TF Sep 60min chart:
We could see some strange tape across multiple markets today, so don't feel the need to trade this. Brexit will be out of the way soon enough, and the markets will still be here afterwards.

My appeal for assistance in tracking down the hacker of theartofchart.net met with a good response and we have received a picture of a man who fits the profile of our hacker, and could be our guy. We don't have a confirmed name or address yet but we have unconfirmed reports that his first name may well start with a 'J', and that he may be posing online as an institutional trader to cover his real activities as a troll and minor league hacker. We are appealing for more information to help identify this menace to society. :-)