- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Thursday, 21 July 2016

Follow The Yellow Brick Road

I never managed to get a post out yesterday in the end as I was preparing for my vacation, so I'm doing an early post today before I go using charts I did last night for Basic Chart Service subscribers at theartofchart.net.

SPX inched a little higher yesterday and a possible strong RSI5_NYMO daily sell signal is now brewing. SPX may go a little higher but not much I suspect, and I am expecting that sell signal to fix within a couple of days. After it does I'm expecting a retracement to at minimum test the daily middle band, which  closed yesterday at 2111, and likely lower. SPX daily chart:
ES could fail any time on this setup and if it fails today then there is already a decent looking possible double top formed to get the ball rolling if it fails today. ES Sep 60min chart:
One thing I was very pleased to see last night was that after TF broke rising support from the 1085 low, a rising channel from that low was then established. This gives us a very useful marker for when this uptrend has likely topped out. There's not a lot happening on the short side while this channel survives. After it fails there shouldn't be much of interest on the long side until SPX at least retests the daily middle band as support. TF rising channel support is currently in the 1201/2 area. TF Sep 60min chart:
After this coming retracement completes we should see more new all times highs on SPX, so I'll be keeping an eye out looking for a low and will be posting updates every so often on my twitter feed, which you can see here. I'm on vacation until Sunday 31st July, so my next morning post will be on Monday 1st August.

Tuesday, 19 July 2016

Straining at Gnats

It has been very dull in the afternoon recently, and sometimes not a lot more interesting in the morning. SPX has been stalled for three days now and a possible double top has formed. It's very small, and after the great leap upward from 1991, one would think that a retracement of slightly over 1% would be easily accomplished, but it seems that SPX is paralysed into a retracement that so far has been only in time.

If a surviving bear can be located, then an hourly close below double top support at 2155.79, and the 50 hour MA in the same area, then the pattern target would be in the 2142.50 area. First support on a daily close basis is at the 5dma, currently in the 2160 area. SPX 60min chart:
Next support, on an hourly close basis is at the 50 hour MA, currently in the 2155 area. SPX daily chart:
If this very small double top turns out to be a bull flag instead then I'd expect to see a retest of the current all time high, and likely a marginal new high that would be unlikely to sustain trade over 2190 before a retracement that should run to at least 3% and more likely over 5%, before making more all time highs.

Last post before I go on holiday is tomorrow & I am really looking forward to having some time off, particularly if the intraday tape is going to be more of the same while I'm away.  :-)