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Monday, 29 August 2016

Carpe Diem

The SPX high window closed on Friday, SPX filled the open breakaway gap at 2164.5 and SPX closed under the daily middle band on Wednesday through Friday last week. We should see a decline here, though I'm concerned that this is all taking too long, and the next low window at the start of next week isn't moving back. If SPX is to make my target trendline in the 2080 area then it needs to get moving. Otherwise there's a possibility that we see a smaller decline and spend September just gently topping, which would be a much less interesting alternative. SPX daily chart:
The historical stats today lean bullish and lean bearish tomorrow. I'm using the 15min charts that I did for SPX, NDX and RUT last night for subscribers to the Trader's Chart Service at theartofchart.net. I was looking at rally targets in the 2178-81 area when I did these charts last night and we're testing that area now. The 50 hour MA at 2181 needs to be decent resistance here, and SPX needs to close under the daily middle band at 2177/8 today. A sustained break over 2181 would be a concern as it would invite another possible test of the all time high. SPX 15min chart:
NDX hasn't quite reached the 4800 area target I gave and might need to. NDX 15min chart:
RUT is more than halfway back to megaphone resistance. Bears need a reversal soon and a break down ideally as otherwise this setup very much suggests a high retest. RUT 15min chart:
Bears should be in the driving seat now and I'm hoping they get moving seriously today, or tomorrow at the latest. On a sustained break back over 2182 SPX and conversion to support we could still see yet another high retest. Until we see that though, SPX is currently testing the likely HOD area for today at that resistance.

Friday, 26 August 2016

Down In The Hole

A big news day today with Janet Yellen talking about the Fed's future plans to improve the stability of the financial system. Doubtless she will once again be reaffirming the Fed's complete commitment, having dug a vast economic hole with overly loose monetary policy and low interest rates since Greenspan's appointment as the Fed Chairman almost thirty years ago, to keep on digging using the same tools until that hole has entirely disappeared. Obviously we should all hope that the Fed's efforts doing that in the future are more successful than they have been in the past.
SPX tested and held support at 2168.50 overnight and there is an obvious setup to rally up to what would likely be triangle resistance just under the last high. That might be derailed by news from Jackson Hole of course but 60min buy signals fixed on all of the ES, NQ & TF 60min charts yesterday and that's looking good at the time of writing. ES Sep 60min chart:
The setup on NQ is very similar to ES. NQ Sep 60min chart:
The rising wedge on TF is the key there. If ES makes a marginal lower high we may well see TF make a higher high into rising wedge resistance. TF Sep 60min chart:
I'm wary today in front of the potential news bombs from Jackson hole. That's unlikely to change much on the bigger picture but the tape might be much more random today. We shall see. everyone have a great weekend. :-)