- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
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Friday, 24 April 2015

After The Break

Apologies for the late post today. I have had a very intense morning for one reason and another. I'll just do a single chart post today as the setup on SPX here is straightforward.

Obviously the triangle broke up yesterday. SPX made a marginal new all time high and so on. I have a possible channel resistance trendline drawn in on the chart below that hasn't been tested yet and may well hold. I have open 5min and 15min chart sell signals triggered at the highs yesterday and a rising wedge from the 2072 low. If we see weakness today there is obvious support at wedge support and broken triangle resistance in the 2110 area. On a break below there I would have main rising support in the 2080-5 area, but I'd be surprised to see a move there before a hit of rising channel resistance in the 2123-5 area. After that hit I'd be looking for a likely retracement to channel support before the next, and very possibly last, move up. SPX 15min chart:
I don't believe that the SPX spring high is made but I would note that in the case of a hard fail here there is now a perfect double top setup on SPX. On a break back below rising support in the 2080-5 area the high could be in. Until then I'm looking higher into either the 2140-50 or 2170 areas to make that spring high.

Everyone have a great weekend :-)

Thursday, 23 April 2015

The (Seemingly) Eternal Triangle

We've now seen an epic six tests of triangle resistance on SPX. I'm expecting it to break up but starting to wonder if I'll live long enough to see that happen (j/k). Expecting to see another run at that today and hopefully this time it will break up. SPX 60min chart:
Triangles do eventually have to break of course, and the TLT triangle broke down yesterday. That move also broke the double top and I'm expecting to reach pattern targets in the 125-6 area. I would then expect to see a lower low under 122.71 on the way to targets much lower. TLT 60min chart:
I'm leaning towards a bull break over triangle resistance today. If we see a hard reversal down instead I'd note that a break below yesterday's low at 2091.05 would trigger a double top target in the 2072 area at a retest of Monday's low at 2072.37. A break below that would invite a test of triangle support in the 2055 area. I'd be surprised to see that but it's worth bearing in mind.