- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Friday, 13 January 2017

Friday The Thirteenth

Stan and I were asked an interesting question yesterday, which was whether we had any historical stats for how equities tend to perform on Friday the Thirteenth. We don't, and I don't recall every seeing any. Has anyone seen stats on this? Interesting question and if I ever have some free time I might work some up just out of interest.

I was saying yesterday that the decline was likely a practice run as part of the topping process and well, here we are. Nice technical day yesterday with the ES & NQ declines failing into obvious bull flags. The NQ flag broke up yesterday and made target at the ATH retest overnight. The ES flag has broken up at the open today with a strong target back at the retest of the all time high. That's so close now that we'll likely do that today.

Here's the link to my premarket video for Daily Video Subscribers at theartofchart.net this morning, also covering DX, CL, NG, GC & ZB of course. We've been nailing pretty much everything except GC this week, though Stan had a better handle on that than I did. I pretty much redrew my GC chart from scratch yesterday night & think I have a good handle on that now. We'll see in the next day or two whether I'm right about that. If you're interested in trying the services we offer there is a two week free trial available on this page here. That covers all our services except the Big Five Service covering AAPL, AMZN, FB, NFLX & TSLA.

ES has now broken up from the bull flag megaphone with a target at the all time high retest. ES Mar 60min chart:
NQ broke up from the bull flag channel yesterday and has since made a new all time high. 4 of the 5 NQ components in our Big Five Service at theartofchart.net are looking short term toppy, and these are a large enough proportion of the index that I'm doubtful about much more upside on NQ short term. NQ Mar 60min chart:
TF has broken back over the weekly pivot and the obvious next target is bull flag resistance, currently in the 1386/7 area. TF Mar 60min chart:
Holiday tape today which should be thin and would usually lean bullish. I'd be surprised to see ES go any lower than the weekly pivot at 2262.50 today, and I wouldn't be that surprised if ES doesn't break below 2269 again today.

After a look around for a replacement for Screencast as an image host I've settled on Flickr and testing that this week has gone well. 1TB of free storage, no onerous bandwidth restrictions & good reliability. I'm also going to be uploading to Flickr some of the intraday charts that I show on the theartofchart.net subscriber only twitter feed, so if you're not a subscriber and you'd like to see those then you just need to use this link, and make sure that you have selected for the charts to be sorted by upload date and time so the newest charts are at the top. Strangely there don't seem to be many, or possibly any, chartists using Flickr for charts. I've no idea why that is, as it looks ideal as a chart server and archive. Perhaps I'll start a trend. Everyone have a great weekend :-)

Thursday, 12 January 2017

Peering Over The Edge

This is obviously a very toppy looking setup on SPX and it's highly likely that SPX is topping out here in the short term, and very possibly making a major bull market top. In terms of timing, topping processes on SPX tend to be slow and my working assumption has been that SPX would kick around until Inauguration at the end of next week, and at that point the decline would get going. I was planning to describe the decline as the 'Trump Dump', but I may reconsider doing that depending on any further alleged revelations about the President-Elect's personal habits in the interim. :-)

SPX may of course not wait that long, as there is a very decent looking double top setup already formed and ready to go to take SPX back to the 2180 area, which might be a good match with rising wedge support by the time it is reached. Rising wedge support is currently in the 2150 area. SPX daily chart:
On the ES chart the triangle I was looking at last night was delivering beautifully until triangle support at 2255 was broken this morning. The triangle could be evolving into a bull flag, but it's more likely that this is an H&S breaking down with a target in the 2232 area, just above major support in the 2226-8 area. ES Mar 60min chart:
On NQ a perfect double top has formed and broken down with a target at the weekly pivot retest at 4966.25. I called that as likely for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net in my NQ chart last night, as well as calling ES to 2255 test and TF back to 1350, as you can see looking back through the comments on the charts. NQ Mar 60min chart:
TF has broken below the triangle at last and the obvious target is in the 1325 area, though there is some support in the 1345 area that hasn't yet broken at the time of writing and that could hold if the bears fail to follow through on the very trendy action into the lows this morning , though I like the 1325 target better. TF Mar 60min chart:
Any topping process involves a practice run or three as SPX warms up for the turn. My working assumption is that this is one of those. On a sustained break below 2233 SPX that working assumption would likely be wrong.

Apologies for the lack of a post yesterday. I just got swamped in work. It's been a very busy January so far. It's going well though. We just updated testimonials on the front page at theartofchart.net & we're clearly doing something right :-)