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Tuesday, 23 August 2016

The Battle At The Bands

Yesterday started off as expected, but the move down stalled at the daily middle band, and then that held on repeated tests for the rest of the day. I was saying last night on the daily video update for subscribers at theartofchart.net that the support there three of the last four days was favoring a retest of the daily upper band at 2194/5 next, and that the possible H&S patterns forming on SPX, NDX & RUT were now much less likely to deliver. On a retest of the ATH, which we are seeing now, then I'd be looking for a marginal new all time high in the 2194-2200 range, that should not break the resistance trendline now at 2200. I would expect that marginal new high to be the swing high for the current move up, and for that to hold for three or four weeks. SPX daily chart:
I'm added the ES, NQ & TF charts that I posted for members at theartofchart.net this morning, and I have updated all of those to show the now likely double top setups rather than the H&S setups that had been forming. ES Sep 60min chart:
NQ Sep 60min chart:
TF Sep 60min chart:
SPX is now past the middle of Stan's cycle high window and the setup is all there to make a decent swing high today. I'll be looking for that 4%+ retracement from that high and then at least a retest of this high on the next swing up.

Monday, 22 August 2016

I Don't Like Mondays

There's an interesting setup on the SPX 15min coming into this week, with the possible H&S patterns that I was proposing last Tuesday morning still forming on all of SPX, NDX and RUT, but with a possible alternate falling wedge forming on SPX. Either way the obvious next move would be a test of the H&S neckline / possible falling wedge support in the 2166/7 area. At that point we should either see a fill of the open breakaway gap into 2164.25,  or a reversal back up to retest 2193 to make a likely second high of a double top.

All charts from the charts I did at the weekend for the Trader's Chart Service at theartofchart.net. further notes on the charts as usual.

SPX 15min chart:
SPX 60min chart:
So far this morning the daily middle band at 2175/6 is being tested as support and is holding so far. SPX daily chart:
Apologies for the lack of a post on Friday. Stan's on holiday and I was having a wordpress technical issue that lost me a lot of work on theartofchart.net that I then had to redo.  I called a possible island top on SPX on twitter on Friday morning and I'd note that that breakaway gap down didn't fill. This swing high may well have already been made and, on a fill of the open gap into 2164.25, likely has been made.

Monday's have been very hard to trade recently, and while the short term setup looks clear, recent history suggests that the tape may be unfriendly. Trade safe.