- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
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Friday, 26 August 2016

Down In The Hole

A big news day today with Janet Yellen talking about the Fed's future plans to improve the stability of the financial system. Doubtless she will once again be reaffirming the Fed's complete commitment, having dug a vast economic hole with overly loose monetary policy and low interest rates since Greenspan's appointment as the Fed Chairman almost thirty years ago, to keep on digging using the same tools until that hole has entirely disappeared. Obviously we should all hope that the Fed's efforts doing that in the future are more successful than they have been in the past.
SPX tested and held support at 2168.50 overnight and there is an obvious setup to rally up to what would likely be triangle resistance just under the last high. That might be derailed by news from Jackson Hole of course but 60min buy signals fixed on all of the ES, NQ & TF 60min charts yesterday and that's looking good at the time of writing. ES Sep 60min chart:
The setup on NQ is very similar to ES. NQ Sep 60min chart:
The rising wedge on TF is the key there. If ES makes a marginal lower high we may well see TF make a higher high into rising wedge resistance. TF Sep 60min chart:
I'm wary today in front of the potential news bombs from Jackson hole. That's unlikely to change much on the bigger picture but the tape might be much more random today. We shall see. everyone have a great weekend. :-)

Thursday, 25 August 2016

There's No Rushing These Things

Stan's on holiday this week (as well as last week) and I'm minding the shop at theartofchart.net, so I've been more underwater than usual. I try to get these posts out in the morning but that's not always possible. Apologies for this particularly late one.

Bears had a good day yesterday and the marginal swing high that I was looking for was not made. Does this mean that this seemingly eternal topping process is finally done? Well no, but it's a step closer to finished. As I mention regularly, there's no hurrying these things and topping processes particularly can test the patience of even the most experienced traders. It's coming, and coming soon, but there's still more to do as I'll show below.
All the charts today are the ones I did last night for subscribers to the Trader's Chart Service at theartofchart.net, though for the last two I've updated them to show the price action this morning as well.

On the daily chart the close was a marginal 2.5 handles below the daily middle band yesterday. The daily middle band is at 2178 at the time of writing and the bears would like another close below today that would ideally be at least 4 handles below. SPX daily chart:
On the SPX 15min chart I was writing last night that bears needed to break under 2168.50 double top support to eliminate a possible triangle option here. They haven't managed that yet today and at the time of writing I'm not that optimistic about seeing that today, though the bears have definitely not lost that battle yet. If they can break that 2168.50 SPX level then the swing high should be behind us. In the absence of that break the triangle option would strongly suggest that a last new high is still needed. SPX 15min chart:
On the RUT 15min chart I was saying that wedge support need to be tested at 1234/5 and we duly had that test this morning. That confirms a high quality rising wedge, but obviously that wedge support will still have to be broken to open up the downside. RUT 15min chart:
If I was a teacher writing a school report here, then I might well be saying that Ursus Jr had made a promising start to the move, but that more effort will be required, and that there are some significant milestones ahead that will need to be reached to take young Ursus where he wants to go. We'll see what he can do next :-)

While we are waiting the tape is getting more interesting at least. It should be a lot more interesting soon, but we're not quite there yet. Soon.